पिछले हफ़्ते भारत के कुछ सीमावर्ती क्षेत्रों में कई घटनाओं ने भारतीय जनता को झकझोर कर रख दिया। ये घटनाएं जम्मू-कश्मीर, लद्दाख, उत्तराखंड और अरुणाचल प्रदेश की सीमाओं से जुड़ी हैं। एक हफ़्ते में इतनी सारी घटनाएं होना असामान्य बात है। लंबे समय से हमने भारत की उत्तरी और पश्चिमी सीमाओं पर ख़तरे के तौर पर कई घटनाएं होते नहीं देखी हैं। 

भारतीय सेना और पीएलए के वरिष्ठ सैन्य कमांडरों के बीच लद्दाख के मोल्दो-चुशुल में 13वीं कोर कमांडर स्तर की वार्ता अप्रत्याशित गतिरोध में समाप्त हुई। इस साल 20 फरवरी को 10वें दौर की वार्ता में एक ऐतिहासिक निर्णय लिया गया था: दोनों सेनाओं को पैंगोंग त्सो क्षेत्र में पीछे हटना था, जिसमें फिंगर्स कॉम्प्लेक्स और कैलाश रेंज की ऊंचाइयां शामिल थीं; कार्यान्वयन भी 72 घंटों में पूरा हो गया। यह उम्मीद की जा रही थी कि यह सकारात्मक विकास बाद में अन्य उप क्षेत्रों तक फैल जाएगा जहां स्थापित गश्त बिंदुओं (पीपी) तक भारतीय गश्त से इनकार किया जा रहा था।

11वें और 12वें दौर की वार्ता में भले ही कुछ खास हासिल न हुआ हो, लेकिन 20 जुलाई को 12वें दौर की वार्ता के बाद गोगरा क्षेत्र में आपसी सहमति से सेना पीछे हटने के बाद बहुत कुछ उम्मीदें जगी हैं। 13वें दौर का नतीजा वाकई निराशाजनक रहा है। नकारात्मक भावना इस तथ्य से पैदा होती है कि यह अन्य घटनाओं के मद्देनजर हुआ है जिन्हें नजरअंदाज नहीं किया जा सकता। 

भू-राजनीतिक पक्ष पर, अफ़गानिस्तान में स्थिति के 180 डिग्री के बदलाव ने पिछले 30 वर्षों में शीत युद्ध के बाद से किसी भी अन्य की तरह अनिश्चितता पैदा नहीं की है। महामारी के बाद और अफ़गानिस्तान से अमेरिका की वापसी के बाद, रणनीतिक तस्वीर काफी हद तक बदल गई है, जिसने संभवतः चीन को चीन-भारत सीमा के बारे में निर्णय लेने पर रोक लगाने के लिए मजबूर किया है। दबाव बिंदु अभी भी मौजूद हैं और भारत को बाड़ के अमेरिकी पक्ष में गहराई से माना जाता है।

वाशिंगटन में प्रधानमंत्री नरेंद्र मोदी की हाल की बैठकों में भारत को चीन के विरोधी ताकतों के साथ गठबंधन करते हुए दिखाया जा रहा है। इन परिस्थितियों में, चीन शायद नहीं चाहेगा कि वह सीमाओं पर कमजोर पड़ता हुआ दिखाई दे, हालांकि तनाव कम करने की जिम्मेदारी पूरी तरह से उसके कंधों पर है। तनाव कम करने के बजाय, चीन ने उत्तराखंड और अरुणाचल प्रदेश में दो और दबाव बिंदुओं की सीमित सक्रियता के जरिए सीमा पर दबाव बढ़ा दिया है।

उत्तराखंड में पीएलए ने भारत की तैयारियों और प्रतिक्रिया का परीक्षण करने के लिए बाराहोती बाउल में प्रवेश करना चुना। कुछ सप्ताह बाद इसने अरुणाचल प्रदेश में एलएसी पार कर ली। यांग्त्से के पास विवादित क्षेत्र में प्रतिद्वंद्वी गश्ती दल के आमने-सामने आने पर आमना-सामना हुआ, जिसमें सैनिकों ने एक-दूसरे से अपने-अपने पक्ष में वापस जाने के लिए कहा।

सेना प्रमुख जनरल एमएम नरवणे ने बार-बार थिएटर में पीएलए के निर्माण और एलएसी के दूसरी तरफ बुनियादी ढांचे में की जा रही बड़ी प्रगति पर जोर दिया, जिससे यह स्पष्ट हो गया कि चीन भ्रम की रणनीति में लगा हुआ है। राजनीतिक-कूटनीतिक स्तर पर लगातार बातचीत और बैठकों में, इसने एलएसी पर तनाव कम करने और बातचीत जारी रखने की आवश्यकता पर ध्यान केंद्रित किया, जबकि सैन्य क्षेत्र में, ग्लोबल टाइम्स जैसे चीन के राज्य-नियंत्रित मुखपत्रों से नैतिकतावादी सलाह की खुराक के साथ बलपूर्वक गतिविधि जारी है।

दूसरी ओर, जम्मू-कश्मीर में पिछले हफ़्ते कश्मीर में अल्पसंख्यकों की हत्याओं की एक श्रृंखला और पीर पंजाल के दक्षिण में सैनिकों और आतंकवादियों के बीच असंबद्ध संपर्कों की एक श्रृंखला सामने आई। घाटी में कई सक्रिय खुफिया-आधारित ऑपरेशन हुए, जिससे यह धारणा बनी कि कश्मीरी हिंदुओं को निशाना बनाए जाने की कुख्यात घटना के 30 साल बाद, सुरक्षा परिदृश्य के लिहाज से यह लगभग नब्बे के दशक जैसा हो गया है।

अफगानिस्तान में तालिबान 2.0 के आने और कथित रणनीतिक गहराई हासिल करने के साथ पाकिस्तान ने जो शानदार लेकिन स्थायी सफलता हासिल की है, उसे देखते हुए पाकिस्तान ने समय नहीं गंवाया है। वह दो कारकों को ध्यान में रखकर रणनीति बना रहा है। पहला, 5 अगस्त 2019 के बाद कश्मीर में मिली भारी क्षति के बाद एक बार फिर से अपनी पकड़ मजबूत करने की जरूरत है और आने वाली सर्दियों से पहले इसकी शुरुआत करनी है। दूसरा अफगानिस्तान में हो रही घटनाओं से बहने वाली प्रेरणादायक, वैचारिक हवाओं का फायदा उठाना है।

रणनीति कहीं न कहीं सफलता की उम्मीद में कई दिशाओं से घुसपैठ के माध्यम से आतंकवादियों की ताकत बढ़ाने पर जोर देती है। यह नियंत्रण रेखा के आसपास के कुछ उथले उद्देश्यों को भी लक्षित करने पर विचार करती है (हाल ही में उरी घुसपैठ को याद करें)। रणनीति कश्मीर में सबसे कमजोर लक्ष्य, अल्पसंख्यकों पर हमला करने के प्रमुख उपाय के साथ समाप्त होती है।

लगभग 800 कश्मीरी हिंदू परिवार अभी भी वहां रहते हैं, साथ ही 1.5 लाख सिख भी हैं। पाकिस्तान को एहसास है कि भारत की कमजोरी यही है - इसका असर पूरे देश पर पड़ता है, इसके अलावा पाकिस्तानी प्रायोजकों के बीच यह धारणा भी है कि कश्मीर से अल्पसंख्यकों को बेदखल करने से वहां की बहुसंख्यक आबादी को एक आम धार्मिक विचारधारा से जोड़ने में मदद मिलती है, जो इस्लाम के एक रूढ़िवादी रूप की ओर इशारा करती है।
इसमें कोई संदेह नहीं है कि चीन और पाकिस्तान हमारी कुछ सबसे महत्वपूर्ण सीमाओं की सुरक्षा के बारे में अनिश्चितता पैदा करने में सफल रहे हैं, लेकिन यह संक्रमणकालीन है और इसकी उम्मीद की जानी चाहिए।

पाकिस्तान के लिए, अपने आप में युद्ध कोई विकल्प नहीं है; फिर भी राजनीतिक, सामाजिक और सैन्य क्षेत्रों में मिश्रित घटनाएँ फ़ायदेमंद हैं। नियंत्रण रेखा के भीतर और बाहर भारत द्वारा मज़बूत आतंकवाद विरोधी अभियान, अल्पसंख्यकों की सुरक्षा की ज़िम्मेदारी कश्मीरी मुस्लिम बहुसंख्यकों को सौंपने के लिए सबसे सूक्ष्म प्रयासों द्वारा संतुलित किया जाना महत्वपूर्ण है। यह सवाल है कि कश्मीर में सेना, जो रणनीति और नवाचार का पारंपरिक शक्तिशाली घोड़ा है, कितनी प्रभावी रूप से ऐसी योजना बना सकती है और सभी को साथ लेकर चल सकती है।

लद्दाख और अन्य जगहों पर एलएसी अलग-थलग या अलग-थलग नहीं है। विरोधी मोटे तौर पर एक-दूसरे के साथ तालमेल में हैं और सीमाओं पर अनिश्चितता पैदा करने से उन्हें वह भ्रम पैदा करने में मदद मिलती है जिसकी उन्हें तलाश है। उभरते माहौल में जहां कई खिलाड़ी नए गठबंधन और फोकस के नए क्षेत्रों की तलाश कर रहे हैं, दो अच्छी तरह से स्थापित सहयोगियों के लिए, जिनके कई सामान्य उद्देश्य हैं, भारत को दुविधा में रखने के लिए अपने प्रयासों को एकजुट करना स्पष्ट रूप से फायदेमंद है।

भारत-अमेरिका रणनीतिक साझेदारी के प्रति हमारी उभरती प्रतिबद्धता, चीन और पाकिस्तान दोनों के साथ जमीनी सीमाओं पर निपटने में हमारी दुविधा के लिए अपर्याप्त समर्थन प्रदान करती है। यही वह चीज है जिसका फायदा दोनों विरोधी सीमाओं को इतना सक्रिय रखकर उठाना चाहते हैं। भले ही हम अपनी दीर्घकालिक रणनीतिक जरूरत के लिए इंडो-पैसिफिक और क्वाड को देखते हैं, लेकिन सेना प्रमुख की राय का पालन करना जरूरी है। उन्होंने कहा, "अगर चीनी वहां रहने के लिए हैं, तो हम भी वहां रहने के लिए हैं।"सभी सीमाओं पर हमारी मौजूदगी से उस इरादे को स्पष्ट रूप से दर्शाया जाना चाहिए।

(लेखक श्रीनगर स्थित 15 कोर के पूर्व कमांडर हैं और अब कश्मीर केंद्रीय विश्वविद्यालय के कुलपति हैं। उनसे atahasnain@gmail.com पर संपर्क किया जा सकता है)

सार्वजनिक हस्तियों की विरासत का स्थायित्व फ़्रीज़ फ़्रेम्स की बदौलत है। कुछ नाम कभी नहीं भूले जाएँगे, जबकि अन्य गुमनाम और अनाम ही रहेंगे। इवो जीमा पर सितारे और पट्टियाँ फहराते हुए सैनिक। गांधी और नेहरू एक दूसरे को हँसाते हुए। यूसुफ़ कर्श की चर्चिल की 'दहाड़ते हुए शेर'वाली तस्वीर। जापान के अमेरिका के सामने आत्मसमर्पण करने के बाद टाइम्स स्क्वायर में एक नर्स को चूमता हुआ नाविक। पुलिस से बचते हुए बाबा रामदेव। दुखद, मार्मिक, रोमांटिक, अंतरंग और कार्टूननुमा, ये सभी तस्वीरें उस पल की महिला के सार को परिभाषित करती हैं, या वे क्या हैं, या ऑप्टिक जीवाश्मीकरण के उस पल में क्या बन गई हैं।

ऐसा लगता है कि बाबा रामदेव के पास पतंजलि उत्पादों के बारे में भ्रामक विज्ञापन करने वालों के खिलाफ सुप्रीम कोर्ट के गुस्से से बचने के लिए आसन खत्म हो गए हैं। बाबा हमारे समय के सबसे प्रभावशाली व्यक्तियों में से एक हैं, एक स्वयंभू गुरु जिन्होंने योग को अंतर्राष्ट्रीय दिवस मिलने से कई साल पहले ही इसका विपणन किया था। वह एक दखलंदाज़ साधु हैं, जिनकी चाल-ढाल बहुत भयावह है, वह एक टीवी सेलेब्रिटी हैं, उनके नाम पर एक बायोपिक भी है और उन्हें राजनीतिक संरक्षण भी प्राप्त है।

बेतरतीब काले रंग से रंगे बेतरतीब बालों और दाढ़ी, प्रभावशाली सिक्स-पैक और नेपाली रॉकफेलर की कारोबारी नाक के साथ एक छायादार स्वेनगली के साथ, रामदेव ने 3,000 करोड़ रुपये का व्यापारिक साम्राज्य खड़ा कर लिया है। और उन्होंने यह सब भारत की 'प्राचीन संस्कृति'की झलक के सहारे किया है - वर्तमान वेल्टनशाउंग जो उन्हें दोस्त बनाए रखने और लोगों को प्रभावित करने में मदद करता है।

खोये हुए अतीत को खोजने की अपनी खोज में, 20वीं सदी के अधिकांश उपनिवेश-मुक्त राष्ट्रों की तरह, नया भारत भी अपनी जड़ें धर्मग्रंथों की संवेदनशीलता और व्याख्याओं में तलाश रहा है। आज के समय में लोगों का रुख पश्चिमी विज्ञान पर संदेह करना है, जबकि वह अपनी सर्वश्रेष्ठ तकनीक का इस्तेमाल कर रहा है; या कहें कि 'हमारे पास यह पहले से था', 'हम पहले से ही यह जानते थे', या गोरे लोगों ने हमारी नकल की।'लेकिन इसके साथ एकमात्र समस्या यह है कि हलवा सबूत नहीं है, न ही सबूत ही पूरा सच है।

ज्योतिष, खगोल विज्ञान और आह्वान के संगम के साथ आयुर्वेद ने आदिम दुनिया के हर्बलिस्टों की तरह ही सहस्राब्दियों से प्रकृति के साथ एक रहस्यमय अनुबंध किया है। अंतर यह है कि प्राकृतिक उपचारों से लोगों को ठीक करने वाली 'बुद्धिमान महिलाओं'को यूरोप में चुड़ैलों के रूप में जला दिया गया था, जबकि हिंदू युग की प्रबुद्ध भारतीय स्थापना ने सुश्रुत, अत्रेय और धन्वंतरि को चिकित्सा विज्ञान के स्वामी बनने के लिए प्रोत्साहित किया। वे धन और पद की चाह रखने वाले चिकित्सक नहीं थे, बल्कि ज्ञान और रहस्योद्घाटन के स्रोत थे जिन्होंने पीड़ितों को ठीक करने के लिए प्रकृति के रहस्यों को निकाला।

In contrast, Western pharma, like automobiles, prêt and pizza, is a billion-dollar marketing business. Its sheer size and money power is able to sideline Ayurveda, in spite of AYUSH. Ramdev’s stellar achievement is that he brought Ayurveda to the people on a mass scale. His success lies not just in his marketing genius; he is the first Indian medicine man to mix Ayurveda and religion to mesmerise a devout populace.

‘A guru of this stature can’t be wrong,’ is the sentiment ‘so his products gotta be pure’. The popularity of Patanjali’s natural products suggest that he can’t be all that wrong. Ramdev’s business empire, built on religion, indigenous medicine and melodramatic flamboyance, undoubtedly enjoys tremendous clout.

For a child of illiterate Haryanvi farmers, he is the Hindu icon of cultural commerce. Faced with the biggest legal challenge to his career, what will be the enduring image? India’s omnipotent prime minister bowing to him, or his products being taken off the shelves as he runs for legal cover? Sushruta may know.

Ravi Shankar

ravi@newindianexpress.com

If there is one sector that punches much above its weight, it is Media & Entertainment (M&E). Its actors and anchors are household names. From featuring on billboards they have found their way to political parties. Television shows like ‘Big Boss’, and ‘Kaun Banega Crorepati?’ are the stuff of family debate and commuter gossip.

Yet the companies who produce the entertainment content, and bring us news and live sports, are struggling. As the way people consume entertainment and news changes, companies must quickly adjust or die away. The big multiplex companies of yore – PVR and INOX – are in their last gasp as families now prefer to eat their chips and watch movies on Netflix.

The reason for the slow growth of media and entertainment is because it is a ‘secondary’ industry. It is largely dependent on advertising revenue, which in turn is dependent on how much other industry sectors are willing to spend on advertising, which is not much. For the individual consumer, ‘entertainment’ is always an ‘optional’ spend depending on how much is left after buying essentials like food. The poor growth of entertainment revenue is a reflection of India’s slow consumption story.

Television shrinks

Every year the M&E Industry does a round of introspection. Hosted by FICCI and branded as ‘Frames’, the annual jamboree in its 24th year, convened in Mumbai once again this week. The attendance was low, the speakers middle-order and the mood tepid. Kevin Vaz, chairman of FICCI’s media & entertainment committee, did try to work up some froth claiming, “India’s entertainment industry was poised to captivate the world.”

Mrinalini Jain, Chief Development Officer at content company, Banijay Asia and Endemol, on the other hand said at one of the sessions that though Indiansoap opera captures the intricacies of human relations, it is struggling to find markets overseas. The movement is only one way – ‘The Good Wife’, ‘Big Boss’ and ‘Fear Factor’ – are all formats lifted from successful US shows.

As Vaz reminded us, India produces a staggering 200,000 hours of content annually. This includes over 1,700 films, 3,000 hours of premium OTT content, and 20,000 songs. But the revenue they generate is a pittance. Does it reflect on the quality of the products? Or is it a marketing failure? The jury is still out on these questions.

The highlight of the 3-day industry evaluation is the Ernst & Young status report. It had, as it does every year, an optimistic ring; but a careful read reveals how much the industry is struggling. If there is a ray of hope, it is digital media.

The E&Y report said the M&E sector grew at about 8% in calendar 2023, an expansion of about Rs 17,300 crore, to reach Rs 2.32 lakh crore. While overall this was 21% above the pre-pandemic years, the report conceded traditional media – television, print and radio – lagged behind 2019 levels.

The big slowdown in advertising in the first half of CY2023 took a toll, especially television, the largest of the entertainment segments. Ad revenue actually fell 6.5% due to a slowdown in spending by gaming and D2C brands. There was a marginal growth in subscription, but overall television revenues were down 2% to Rs 69,600 crore in 2023 from Rs 70,900 crore in the previous year.

Change in pecking order

Regulation and the tight control over broadcasting licenses is a big concern. From the earlier galloping growth of TV channels, there is now a downturn: the total number of channels on air declining from 906 in 2021 to 899 in 2023. On the ground too the number of MSOs, the last mile cable-wallahs, have sharply fallen from 1,702 in December 2020 to 998 in December 2023.

There has been a marginal growth in the traditional segments, but it is linear and single-digit. Films for instance showed revenue of Rs 19,700 crore, an increase of 14% over the previous year. But compare it to the pre-pandemic revenue of Rs 19,100 crore, and it’s crawling at 3%.

Expectedly, digital media was marked out as the hope for the future. Digital advertising grew 15% to reach Rs 57,600 crore, or 51% of total advertising revenues. There was a slowdown in digital subscription though with revenue of Rs 7,800 crore. E&Y expects digital media, as a segment, to overtake television by the end of 2024.

All this is reflecting in the new pecking order. The two Big Tech companies – Google and Meta (formerly Facebook) – are strides ahead of the biggest traditional M&E companies. Of the current estimated annual advertising revenue of Rs 1.2 lakh crore, just Google India and Meta garner Rs 43,308 crore, ahead of the combined ad revenue of Disney Star, Zee, Times and Sony.

Unfortunately ‘Ficci Frames’ failed to discuss the biggest contemporary shakeout roiling the industry – the coming merger of Reliance Industries (RIL), Viacom 18 and Disney Star. The new Rs 70,000 crore ($ 8.5 billion) giant will compete ruthlessly with the Big Tech companies Meta and Google India for ad revenue and eyeballs.

It will ultimately be a Reliance company. Disney Star which will hold 37% will be reduced to a minority, perhaps preceding a complete exit

from India. The merger raises big questions: Can an entity that will control 45% of the TV advertising market and about 34% of OTT sales pass our anti-monopoly laws? And will this suffocate creative content? But then that is another story.

George RR Martin too might be intrigued by the Clash of the Kings underway in Andhra Pradesh. Thankfully, there is no violence but, the rest of it is just as riveting, surprising and suspenseful. None expected former chief minister N Chandrababu Naidu to be jailed in the Skill Development Corporation scam. And, before one could even digest the news, the CID moved fast wielding the inner ring road alignment and AP Fibernet cases like a storm of swords leaving the veteran warhorse gasping for breath.

The entire discourse is now on whether the sections invoked against him stand legal scrutiny. We will leave that to the legal experts to battle it out in court. The most significant fallout of Naidu’s woes is on the TDP’s future. The party, since its inception, had been under the late NTR till 1995 when his son-in-law Naidu dethroned him. He has run the party without a challenger to speak of, to his leadership. He didn’t nurture an effective second-rung leadership either.

With him behind bars and a cloud of uncertainty hanging over his freedom, the TDP suddenly finds itself without a strong leader. Such is its plight that it is counting on the oratorical skills of actor and Jana Sena chief Pawan Kalyan to take the fight to the ruling YSRC. In the absence of spontaneous public sympathy, how does the TDP intend to face this evident existential crisis, too, with elections just seven months away? One can never discount Naidu, but the present circumstances are unprecedented. After the 2019 elections, he had tried his best to patch up with the BJP in vain.

The irony is that State BJP chief Purandeswari is none other than his wife Bhuvaneswari’s sister. Though their political history is riddled with differences, normally, one would have expected more than just lip sympathy. However, going by Purandeswari’s own words, she and the BJP state unit will abide by the party ‘high command,’ which has been maintaining a deafening silence.

Nara Lokesh, Naidu’s son, has been in Delhi for quite some time, holding consultations with senior advocates to get relief for his father in the Supreme Court. He has also been trying to mobilise support for his father in Delhi. Though leaders including Mamata Banerjee have condemned the manner of Naidu’s arrest, they have not been very vocal.

Sources informed this correspondent that Lokesh did try for an appointment with the BJP top brass, including Home Minister Amit Shah, only to be disappointed. There is an increasing belief, despite denials from BJP leaders, that the party could be shooting at Naidu from YSRC chief and Chief Minister YS Jagan Mohan Reddy’s shoulders. In the absence of strong evidence, we cannot confirm for sure, but even TDP leaders appear to be coming round to the same view.

Naidu has always struck alliances to win elections and has won whenever he had a tie-up with the BJP. In 2019, his somersault towards Congress was a historic blunder. Now, who will Naidu align with in these difficult circumstances? Leaders whisper that the BJP is likely to seek 10-12 Lok Sabha seats and at least 50 Assembly seats for an electoral alliance.

That would be fatal, a few insiders informed on condition of anonymity, because, if BJP-Jana Sena walks away with a huge chunk, they are more than likely to lose most of the seats. Instead, they opined that an alliance with Jana Sena alone would be much better. It makes logical sense. Besides, given the BJP’s silence at this juncture, it is not Naidu’s friend in need. Nor can it be relied upon in the future — with cases piled on Naidu — and going by what it has done in other states.

The only alternative left for Naidu and his party is to once again shake hands with the Congress. It is indeed a great irony that the TDP, which was formed to essentially fight the Congress, may now have no other option but the grand old party.  

It is reliably learnt that Lokesh has sought an appointment with Congress leader Rahul Gandhi. Before his arrest, Naidu too is learnt to have spoken to Karnataka Deputy Chief Minister DK Shivakumar. But, it seems Rahul is in no hurry to play the saviour since Telangana matters more to his party. Any alliance with Naidu might not help in Telangana as we saw in the 2018 elections. But then, if the Congress believes Naidu’s arrest has generated sympathy in Telangana, things may change. It appears unlikely though.

That leaves Naidu without support from either of the two poles in national politics. The only way he can save his party is by galvanizing its cadre and quickly filling the gap in leadership. Lokesh doesn’t yet have it in him as he is still a leader in the making. Leaning heavily on Pawan may backfire anytime. One way or the other, we cannot but conclude that the Naidu era in TDP is coming to a close. The party needs to find a new leader. Lokesh’s wife Brahmani could keep the party flock together. Whether she, with adequate help from party leaders, will be able to deliver is not guaranteed. But that seems to be the only way forward.

Fourteen years ago, Dr Zhou Xiaochuan, Governor of China’s central bank, People’s Bank of China (PBoC), gave a seminal speech on the policy scenario at that time and suggested some reforms. He felt that the extant system was unsustainable and needed to be revamped. His objectives were clear: to de-dollarise and replace it with a multi-currency backup; and to internationalize the Renminbi or RMB. The two goals are integral and overlap.

He argued persuasively that the current system is inherently unstable when the reserve currency (US $) is also a national currency of one member country, as it creates a conflict of interest between developed and developing countries. He advocated a multi-currency reserve and, as a corollary, the internationalization of the Yuan/RMB. Indeed, it became the battle cry of the PBoC for years.

De-dollarisation moves are not unknown to the world. It is the staple diet of Leftists. A good part of de-dollarisation is the result of geopolitical developments, including indiscriminate resort to sanctions. The Ukraine sanctions are the worst as they have driven Russia and some other countries into the Yuan camp, an extraordinary bonus.

The determined and tireless efforts of the PBoC to internationalize the Yuan/RMB over a decade, especially to distance itself from the dollar, cannot be underestimated. It adopted two tracks for the use of RMB -- cross-border trade settlement and the creation of an offshore market. In short, these steps taken then by the PBoC helped promote the integration of China with ASEAN, Hong Kong and other overseas markets.

Every analyst of every hue, whether critical or laudatory, ends up with the plea that unless the PBoC makes the yuan convertible, it cannot be a reserve currency and also challenge the dollar. It is an ideological barrier or a Rubicon the Chinese cannot cross as they are wedded to economic stability as the bedrock of their policy. They were apprehensive of getting “trapped” in the capitalist model.

There is fear lurking among policymakers, especially in emerging economies, that they cannot withstand buffeting by global storms.

There were other grounds for changing track. Studies done by PBoC researchers revealed that the efforts involved in internationalization of the RMB were not commensurate with the results achieved. A researcher Ming Zhang found that the actual settlement was nowhere near the invoices filed. The actual use of the RMB was very low and declining over the years. Two Chinese scholars (Haihong Gao and Yongding Yu) have explained in a paper for the Asian Development Bank that “the success of renminbi internationalisation is dependent on market forces, well designed and strategic thinking.” It also needs supportive global cooperation and favorable economic circumstances.

Perhaps the Chinese policymakers realised that they could move away from chasing the mirage of the neoclassical precepts and seek other radical alternatives or options. The PBoC had weathered several crises in the past and realized that its present economic reach such as markets, trading alliances, FDI, etc., had to create a rival area under its own regime. For China, significantly, the denial of access to SWIFT forces Russian firms to shift to the Cross-Border Inter-Bank Payment System (CIPS).

China has cultivated its relationship with ASEAN over the years. It was the first country to offer strategic support to ASEAN. Commodities and components from across ASEAN passed through China. The Mission of the People’s Republic of China declared, “China and ASEAN are cooperating to build the epicentre of growth.” So true when that declaration was made.

The story of the economic sway of China over Central Asia in the post-Cold War era is as fascinating as it is complex. The vacuum created by the Soviet withdrawal was filled by the Chinese who keep a hold on them through the SCO and other bilateral arrangements. The flagship project BRI or Roads and Bridges made for closer connectivity and cooperation.

Central Asia with its strategic location and oil, gas, and mineral endowments became a hotbed of global powerplay. Central Asian towns became veritable China Bazaars with regular use of yuan as legal tender.

An interesting development inspired by China is the anti-dollar mood and a drive to use local currency. Most of the banks have formed associations and are gaining strength. The anti-dollar move has spread wildly and even entered the corridors of BRICS. New members make a beeline for membership. These trends reflect the anger and anguish of many. But the vested interests are entrenched for so long and gain so much that it cannot be reformed in our time.

(The author served in the Ministry of Finance, Government of India, and retired as Joint Secretary)

What does the B in BBC and BJP have in common? It’s a Bee in the bonnet called the Gujarat riots, which followed the Godhra carnage. It didn’t matter to the broadcasting giant that the Indian Supreme Court, that too during Congress rule, cleared Prime Minister Narendra Modi of any involvement. It went ahead and aired ‘India: The Modi Question’, connecting him with the riots. Obviously, this caused a political earthquake in the powerful Indian establishment. The BJP, forever on its toes to bat away such allegations, struck back vehemently and vociferously: the medium, indeed, seems to be the message here, going by Canadian philosopher Marshall McLuhan. It was McLuhan who coined the phrase 58 years ago in ‘Understanding the Media: The Extensions of Man’. He even quoted the ancient Greeks: “Archimedes once said, “Give me a place to stand, and I will move the world,” he wrote. Today the Canadian philosopher would have remarked of the electronic media, “I will stand on your eyes, your ears, your nerves, and your brain, and the world will move in the manner I choose.” The “places to stand” have been leased to private corporations.

Last week, the Archimedes scenario was on a roll. The BBC, with revenues of 5 billion GBP and worldwide weekly viewership of around 364 million, came in the government’s crosshairs. Established by Royal Charter, the oldest British broadcaster has 22,000 employees across the world, including in India. A couple of weeks after the documentary was aired, over two dozen taxmen and police descended on BBC offices in Mumbai and Delhi. For three days, they combed through files, cell phones and computers, looking for tax evasion. The raid, aka survey, didn’t go down well with the Opposition. The entire non-BJP spectrum yelled government assault on freedom of expression and accused the Modi-Sarkar of intimidating a credible media organisation. Irony died: the ban on the documentary and the subsequent raids were dubbed as the return of the Emergency by the same party of Indira Gandhi who had imposed press censorship—she had banned BBC twice. While the Indian media stuck to reporting the facts on the ground and refrained from making judgments, the Western press went ballistic. It targeted Modi and his party for gagging independent voices. The BJP retaliated by saying the BBC was part of a cabal out to tarnish India’s image abroad. They claimed that this cabal is envious of India’s growing clout and Modi’s global influence. The very fact that Western leaders have been circumspect on the ban proves a point—Modi is too powerful an ally and also an influencer in trade and foreign policy to be crossed. South Block questioned the documentary’s motive by stating, “If anything, this film or documentary is a reflection on the agency and individuals that are peddling this narrative again. It makes us wonder about the purpose of this exercise and the agenda behind it.” Historically the BBC is trusted to correctly convey critical information in any part of the globe. In India, it acquired credibility during the Emergency when Indians stayed glued to BBC news to know about political developments. The BBC has the reputation of being the first to expose news suppressed by privately controlled domestic media companies bowing to authoritarian leaders. But in the age of social media and VPNs, bans have a limited impact. The film went viral, watched by an estimated 50 million plus Indians, although it showed hardly anything new. Hence was the ban counterproductive? Committed saffronites were anxious that it boosted the BBC’s viewership. Since the Indian media excessively amplifies the Modi Factor in governance, pain from BBC’s tiny pinprick would have been negligible and could have been dismissed.

However, the film’s timing and content are suspect. The BBC had been captured by libertarians right from the start. Instead of reporting what it calls “without fear and favour, the BBC favours many and fears few”. Its ideologically coloured reportage forced Churchill to declare, “I am against the monopoly enjoyed by the BBC. For eleven years, they kept me off the air. They prevented me from expressing views which have proved to be right. Their behaviour has been tyrannical. They are honeycombed with Socialists—probably with Communists”. Later, senior ministers in Margaret Thatcher’s cabinet called the BBC a “Stateless Person’s Broadcasting Corporation” due to its biased coverage of the Falklands war. Its Middle East coverage has been partial: a few days ago, the British public fulminated against a sympathetic BBC documentary on Jihadi Bride Shamima Begum who joined ISIS in Syria in 2015 and now wants to return. The broadcaster’s critics call its India reportage biased since the editorial staff is chosen for their political leanings and connections. Ever since Modi became Prime Minister, the BBC’s Hindi and Urdu reporting has been negative. During Covid-19, it gave extensive coverage to the migrant tragedy and pandemic-related deaths, which the government dismissed as far from reality. The BBC, like many journalistic platforms, is often guilty of inaccurate and agenda-driven reporting. But it never got much traction because the government of the day either ignored it or just rapped its knuckles. The backlash to a ban on a poorly researched piece of cliched propaganda proves that censorship is counterproductive. It woke even neutral people up to the riots and time-worn allegations. It made them curious. Any attempt to muzzle dissent is guaranteed to backfire due to the availability of millions of alternative mediums to amplify any message the government spikes. Dissent, discussion and dialogue deliver the same message in a healthy democracy—work speaks louder than words disseminated by any medium. Maiming of the medium, even a motivated one, will sow the seeds of new malicious mediums. Contrarians always ensure the continuity of the Umpire run by truth and nothing else. They may not be adored, but they shouldn’t be abhorred or ignored.

Another Greek story springs to mind about Cadmus, the father of literacy and civilisation. After killing a sacred dragon, he throws its teeth on the ground, from which sprang a group of savage soldiers named ‘spartoi’ who want to kill him. He flings a precious jewel into their midst, and each spartoi wants it for himself. They fight each other and die while Cadmus survives. Truth is a precious jewel and has many dragons like the BBC to defend it. But facts that comprise a doubtful truth will be like the spartoi, and will eventually self-destruct. The BBC and its detractors are advised to brush up on some mythology to get both their history and politics right.

प्रभु चावला
prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com
ट्विटर पर उन्हें फॉलो करें @PrabhuChawla